2 Thursday MLB Predictions — Anchored by Paul Skenes — Exploit Early Pitching Trends

It’s an 11-game Thursday on the diamond and most of the action takes place during the day before the NBA dominates the evening time slots (if you’re looking for betting insights on that front, check out our FREE betting newsletter!). Hihglighting out MLB predictions for the day is an interesting take on the first game of the day and backing an elite pitcher to take care of a familiar opponrnt.

MLB Predictions for Thursday, April 30

Tigers at Braves: Braves (-0.5) through three innings

This is a unique matchup in a few ways and the stars align nicely for an early settling wager.

First things first: Bryce Elder is a handful early in games. Opponents are 8-of-48 (.167) against him on his first trip through the order this season, numbers that work against the thought that pitchers with high-end numbers are most vulnerable early before settling in.

HIs batting average on the second trip? .255.

I’ve got my concerns about Elder regressing (.238 BABIP and an xFIP that is nearly double his ERA) and that’s why I’m not too interested in backing him for an entire game, but if there’s a time to ride his wave, it’s early (his OPS against was 210 points lower last season on first trips through the order than his second).

We saw the Braves jump on Tarik Skubal from the jump last night and if they can get a single run on the board in the first three innings this afternoon, I like our chances.

Atlanta has been a top-10 swing rate offense all season and that’s the perfect approach to knock the Framber Valdez train off the tracks. This season, opponents are 13-of-35 (.371) in 0-0 and 0-1 counts against Detroit’s lefty (.184 otherwise).

His whiff rate has tanked to open this season and if you’re not capable of missing bats, this power packed aggressive offense has crooked number equity.

Cardinals at Pirates: Pirates -1,5

Let’s keep it simple. Don’t go against Paul Skenes right now. Skenes carries an 0.95 ERA, 0.53 WHIP and 29:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) in 28.1 innings across five starts since allowing five runs over two-thirds of an inning against the Mets on Opening Day. And he has a 2.39 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 41:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 37.2 innings over six career starts against the Cardinals.

Matthew Liberatore will take the hill for the Cardinals. He has a 4.09 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 10:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) in 11 innings over two road starts this season, and he’s 2-3 with a 5.45 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 30:14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 34.2 innings over 10 career appearances (six starts) against the Pirates. He has a 4.75 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 19:11 K:BB in 30.1 innings this season, surrendering eight home runs.