3 MLB Predictions — Including Dylan Cease — Expose Sustained Early-Game Struggles

There are only eight games on the board, but there are two definitive contests that our MLB predictions have interest in investing in. As we approach May, the number of data points we have at our disposal is growing and that gives us plenty to consider in our quest to stay ahead of the sportbooks.

MLB Predictions for Monday, April 27

Red Sox at Blue Jays: Toronto to win the first 5 innings

You’re going to have a hard time talking me off of backing an in form version of Dylan Cease falling a lineup that whiffs at the sixth highest rate in baseball.

Few are spinning it better than Toronto’s righty these days as he’s overcome a .365 BABIP on his way to a sparkling 2.10 ERA. Boston has struggled with consistency during the first month of the season and with a low floor, they are at risk if being embarrassed for as long as Cease is on the bump.

That’s why I’m limiting this handicap to the first half of the contest. Cease has posted impressive strikeout numbers to date and I expect that to continue to be the case, but it’s resulted in his pitch count spiking, thus limiting how deep he can realistically pitch.

The strikeouts are sexy (coming off of his second 12-K outing of the season), though it is worth noting that they have come at a cost: Cease has completed six innings in just one of his five starts (19.3 pitches per inning). You’re playing him with confidence every time he toes the rubber, but there are some volume concerns that do lower the floor a touch.

The bullpen hasn’t been taxed lately and that should help this team get to the finish line, but the price isn’t drastically different to remove that variance. If you want to chase bigger odds and like the spot that the ‘pen is in, clicking Cease to earn his second victory of the season is very much in play.

Cubs at Padres: Under 1.5 runs through three innings

The Padres return to reality this week after spending the past six days at elevation by way of Coors Field and the Mexico City games.

No more 16.5 run expectation games. Their first game in each of those hitter friendly series went under the total and while I think that is very much in play, much like the Cease angle, I want to bet on the pitchers and run from the bullpens.

Matthew Boyd didn’t walk any batters in his return to action and in his limited innings, he’s shown signs of plugging a leak from last season by keeping left-handed hitters in check.

On the other side, we get a pitcher in Randy Vasquez who has viable numbers in part because of his ability to dominate inferior competition. This isn’t that, but a confident pitcher who has held opponents to just five hits in 33 at-bats with runners on base is a pretty easy sell until he shows us otherwise.

The Cubs are talented and their season numbers look strong, but their first inning struggles have sustained and that makes a bet like this a little easier to get behind. For the season, they have 15 hits in 95 at-bats (third worst OBP) and a road game that doesn’t have the same environmental risk as the wind at Wrigley is a good bet to extend those struggles.

Angels at White Sox: Munetaka Murakami over 1.5 total bases

This is probably the least exciting matchup of the eight games on tap in Monday’s slate, but that also means several hitters could be in line to deliver a strong performance. Based on how his season has started, Murakami is a hitter you should watch every time he’s at the plate. The Japanese slugger is tied for the MLB lead in homers with 11 alongside Yordan Alvarez, but it’s worth noting that the first baseman has yet to record an extra-base hit that’s not a homer. For the sake of comparison, Alvarez has nine doubles to go with his 11 homers.

Murakami has proven to be a three-true-outcome hitter early in his MLB career, and he enters Monday’s slate with a .222/.360/.519 slash line in April, racking up eight homers, 16 RBI, 15 runs scored and a 34:19 K:BB in 23 games. Murakami should take advantage of a favorable pitching matchup to deliver a strong hitting performance — and who knows, he might hit his first double of the season!