Aaron Nola’s Struggles Highlight 3 MLB Predictions for Monday
By Monday standards, this isn’t a bad slate in terms of volume. The quality of arms however, leaves room to be desired. Our MLB predictions today feature fading a name you know and backing the early inning splits on one that you normally avoid, both of whom are featured in our Fantasy Pitcher Projections tool that has you covered every single day.
MLB Predictions for Monday, May 4
Phillies at Marlins: Marlins moneyline
Many moons ago, seeing “Aaron Nola at Marlins” would have inspired me to evaluate the price of the Phillies and just how creative I could get in backing an ace against a well below average offense.
These days, the opposite is true.
The Marlins boast a disciplined lineup and while they may not be loaded with upside, that approach should be enough to get on the board against the current version of Nola.
The veteran righty has allowed 3+ runs in five of six starts this season and the lone exception came against a bad Rockies team. He’s been leaking oil of late (last two starts: nine innings, 13 hits, and 11 earned runs), disturbing results, even if they came against greater competition than what is looking at him to start this week. The .349 BABIP is likely to regress with time and over 10 strikeouts per nine innings is a starting place, but we need to see Nola rebound before assuming that it’s coming.
That’s not to say that I’m building up Janson Junk as some sort of world beater, but at least he has form (consecutive scoreless outings against the Cardinals and Dodgers) and a willingness to be aggressive (two walks in those 11 innings).
The moneyline prices may seem off to you. You’re naturally going to want Nola in a near coin flip situation: be careful.
Guardians at Royals: Royals (-0.5) through 3 innings
Every pitcher is different. Some aces are vulnerable early and unhittable once they establish a groove. Others aren’t. Some average arms come at opponents with the kitchen sink early, have success, and then get knocked around later once the hitters have seen a bit of everything live.
Our job is to identify interesting situations where tendencies mismatch and this is one of them.
Tanner Bibee allows a .761 OPS to opponents on his first trip through the order this season, 64 points above where that rate sits his next time facing those same batters. We are still early in 2026, but he profiles as one of those “work into rhythm” types.
His opposing number tonight, Michael Wacha, is the exact opposite.
Opponents have recorded just eight knocks in 53 at-bats against him on their first look this season, recording a .151/.182/.302 slash in the process. In the second trip through? He’s been a punching bag: 14 hits in 48 at-bats and a .292/.358/.521 slash with more walks in fewer plate appearances than the first time round.
You could get creative in a live environment and pick the Guardians to win should they fall behind early. That requires strong timing, but it’s very much in play.
That’s my tentative plan and I’ll execute should this run out as I’m thinking it will. I’ve got the Royals (an offense that has flirted with a top-10 average exit velocity all season long) to cover the first three innings, leveraging the strong part of Wacha’s profile against an offense (bottom-5 in exit velocity with time spent in the cellar) that can go through prolonged slumps.
Cash this ticket and I’ll certainly consider back Cleveland live depending on how the pitch counts look and other in-game details.
We don’t always get a unique strength (Wacha) matching up against a unique weakness (Bibee): I’m not going to sit on the sidelines for it!
Mariners vs. Braves: Over 7.5 total runs (-107)
On paper, the Mariners should be one of the best pitching staffs in the majors. Between having an enviable collection of arms and pitching in one of the most pitching-friendly venues in all of baseball, the Mariners should dominate from a pitching perspective… but that hasn’t really been the case in 2025. They enter Monday’s slate ranking sixth in ERA with a 3.72 mark, but they also rank 10th in WHIP (1.26), 14th in strikeouts (289) and 24th in batting average allowed (.259).
On paper as well, the Braves should have a bounce-back year after an injury-plagued 2025 campaign, but they’re shattering even the most optimistic predictions by being one of the best teams in the majors. The Braves have been unstoppable on offense and currently lead the majors in several offensive metrics, including OPS (.806), slugging percentage (.464), batting average (.276), and runs scored (205).
As if that wasn’t enough, this game will be played in Atlanta, where the Braves average 5.05 runs scored per game. Don’t be afraid to go with the over in this case.