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Elly De La Cruz Leads Reds Stack And a Tarik Skubal Fade?

By Kyle Soppe April 29, 2026
Elly De La Cruz Leads Reds Stack And a Tarik Skubal Fade?

We’ve got a split slate today with seven games starting before 5p EST and eight after. The evening group of games is the one I feel better about and where I think there is an interesting leverage spot in the MLB DFS streets. How can you get creative in building a strategically savvy lineup that has win equity in tournament settings?

MLB DFS Strategy for Wednesday, April 29

MLB DFS: Pay Up or Pivot From Tarik Skubal?

For my money, Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball. On a short slate, that makes him tough to avoid, especially in a two-pitcher format like DraftKings, but doing so and getting it right puts you in position to cash in a major way.

It’s scary, but this is the type of spot where I’ll roll the dice.

The Braves can expand the strike zone at times and that obviously opens the door for a big Skubal night, but his whiff rate is down a touch so far in 2026 and that opens up downside in this specific matchup.

We have plenty of time to learn more, but my early hypothesis is that Skubal’s strikeout decline (26.8% after three straight seasons north of 30%) is due to becoming slightly more predictable.

His stuff is still elite, but he’s going to the heater on 40.2% of his pitches, way up from 29.5% a year ago. His fastball is good enough to mow down many lineups, but Atlanta is currently handling that pitch better than any team in the league and their top-10 barrel rate gives them the potential to land a big punch or two against the two-time reigning AL Cy Young.

On a slate like this, fading Skubal needs to be an all in decision. If you really want to get aggressive, you could try to call your shot on which hitter lands the big hit, but I’d rather simply double down on the idea that he’s not going to live up to his price tag.

How do you do that? Can I interest you in some JR Ritchie?

The righty was picked 35th in the 2022 MLB Draft and made his first career start on Thursday in Washington: seven innings, two earned runs, and seven strikeouts.

Not too shabby and with limited tape on him, I think there’s upside now that may not be present with time. In that start against the Nats, his usage of the fastball, curveball, and changeup was over 20%, a tough scouting report to feel good about in an offense that has been held to three or fewer runs in 12 of their 30 games this season.

Safe? Nope. A way to get a leg up on your competition and put yourself in position to cash something significant? I think so.

But none of that matters if you don’t get production from your bats.

MLB DFS: Staking The Cincinnati Reds

I don’t think the Reds are as good as they’ve shown through the first month of the season, but I do think they can keep the good times rolling against Tomoyuki Sugano tonight.

The 36-year-old’s 3.42 ERA is being propped up by an unsustainable 87% strand rate and while the 6.05 ERA seems aggressive, the idea that regression is coming is something I can very much get behind.

Sugano has been an equal opportunity target this season (both righties and lefties have an ISO over .200 against him) and opponents have wasted zero time in barrel him up (10-of-30 on the first two pitches of at-bats against thim this season with the majority of those knocks going for extra bases).

Nathaniel Lowe is a specialist (ISO 37+ points better against southpaws in each of the past three seasons) and the type of bat I consider any time he is in the lineup. His HR/FB Rate is going to regress with time, that much we know, but he’s on a career pace in average exit velocity and his gains in launch angle from last season are very much still a part of his profile.

Elly De La Cruz is the superstar on this Reds team and he won’t come cheap, obviously, but that also means the roster numbers will very much be held in check due to the ownership projections on Skubal. The barrel rate is a given and with big strides being taken in the discipline department, this is the type of hitter I want exposure to when I come in hot on the team as a whole.

Sal Stewart’s combination of price point and limited professional reps always has the potential to make him an underowned player, even if he’s hitting in the heart of a lineup that we expect to do damage. You’ll have to make a call on he or Lowe (both 1B only) and given the difference in price tag, I suggest you play around with both options.

I’ll buy.

His approach is well ahead of where you’d expect it to be for a 22-year-old and that’s been especially true in high leverage spots with runners in scoring position. We saw the Reds strike early last night and all of the production came from the top half of the lineup. I think there’s a decent chance we see Lowe elevated into that portion of the lineup and I love how he projects in a point-per-dollar way should that be the case.

Tyler Stephenson’s bat has been quiet all season, but that’s more the product of a low BABIP, not a lack of quality contact. We saw him impress with RISP last season (.944 OPS) and without dramatic handedness splits, he’s my favorite “cheap option who could come along for the ride” option.

I’m very much a planner: if you fail to prepare, you prepare to fail. Here is what I have penciled in for my late main slate today in GPP’s understanding that tweaks may be made once we get lineup cards submitted.

  • P – Logan Webb (SF)
  • P – JR Ritchie (ATL)
  • C – Tyler Stephenson (CIN)
  • 1B – Sal Stewart (CIN)
  • 2B – Jose Altuve (HOU)
  • 3B – Bo Bichette (NYM)
  • SS – Elly De La Cruz (CIN)
  • OF – JJ Bleday (CIN)
  • OF – TJ Friedl (CIN)
  • OF – Dustin Harris (HOU)