Extreme Run Total Projections Highlight The Wednesday MLB Predictions
Who doesn’t love a full day of ball? We have games starting in every window today and our MLB predictions have you covered on the most statistically sound options. One of our picks is consistent with an angle we’ve been chasing for a month now while the other has a bold take on the Yankees game.
MLB Predictions for Wednesday, May 6
Minnesota Twins at Washington Nationals: Over 9.5
Do we have an avenue for a high-upside ticket in picking this to be the highest-scoring game of the day?
I think there’s a legitimate path, and with Coors Field hosting a game today, we are likely to get a juicy number (not posted at the time of this article). For now, let’s focus on going over the listed number, understanding that we can worry about the exotics later.
First things first, the offenses.
The Minnesota Twins own a losing record, but don’t let that distract you. They are a top-10 unit in average launch angle and (lowest) chase rate. Byron Buxton is the star with double-digit home runs, but pop from Brooks Lee helps with the depth of this lineup, and Austin Martin’s bat skills have been a pleasant surprise.
The big swings are going to be needed if we want to be in position to nail the highest-scoring game pick, but even if the power takes the night off, this is a top-10 OPS offense when there are runners in scoring position.
That’s a lot of upside to take into a plus matchup, and I like them to do the heavy lifting for this ticket, but they aren’t alone.
The Washington Nationals lack team numbers, though there are individual pieces that could succeed in this spot. James Wood is the straw that stirs this drink, and he’s lowered his chase rate this season from last. In 2024, he posted a .221 ISO when holding the platoon advantage, and we’ve seen him muscle up with regularity against righties this season as well.
Wood is the primary reason that this team has 7 games with 8+ runs scored, but he’s not alone. CJ Abrams is at his best when being ultra-aggressive, and with our Fantasy Pitcher Projections not liking either starter in this game, he figures to walk into the stadium ready to swing.
Curtis Mead isn’t a household name, but he’s offered some power, and he’s the type of player that takes us from an “over” lean to the belief that we could really be in for fireworks.
Most over tickets cash when the SP struggles and compromises the bullpen with volume. I think that’s in play for both of these starters, giving each of these teams the potential to hang a crooked number.
Bailey Ober’s xFIP is higher than his FIP, which is higher than his xERA, which is higher than his ERA. Yeah, this profile could moonwalk sooner than later. His chase rate has cratered, and he’s been vulnerable against the top two-thirds of opposing orders (.265 batting average with 40.7% of those hits going for extra bases).
And he might be the best pitcher in this game.
Miles Mikolas had a 12.7% barrel rate against a season ago, and he’s lowered that rate all the way to 12.4% in the early going this season. His fastball was a liability in 2025, a trend that has continued into 2026, and lefties hold a .976 OPS against him.
This is a pretty clear target game for me in the DFS streets, and if I believe fantasy points are going to pile up, you better believe I’ll be invested in the over in a variety of ways.
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees: Under 8
Sure, Nathan Eovaldi has been inconsistent this season, has a concerning 2.04 HR/9, and this game is at Yankee Stadium, but he just threw 7 scoreless innings against the Yankees last Wednesday, surrendering 4 hits with 7 strikeouts and 1 walk in a 3-0 home win.
Eovaldi has been successful against the Yankees, posting a 3.05 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 121 strikeouts with 1 complete-game shutout in 132.2 innings over 25 career appearances (22 starts).
Will Warren is having a career year with a 4-0 record, a 2.39 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and an unreal 46:8 K:BB in 37.2 innings over 7 starts. He’s missing bats and displaying control, and I can’t see that changing today. I like the under.
Pirates at Diamondbacks: Under 8.5
The strength of this pick relies solely on the pitching matchup, as the Pirates will have Paul Skenes on the mound while the Diamondbacks will counter with Michael Soroka. While it would be a stretch to say this is going to be a showdown between aces, both have been pitching very well this season.
Skenes has been excellent for Pittsburgh – even if his 3.18 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story. If we remove his Opening Day start, where Skenes was tagged for five earned runs on two-thirds of an inning against the Mets on March 26, then he owns a blistering 1.62 ERA with a 0.66 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 through 33.1 frames. Meanwhile, Soroka is also looking for a bounce-back effort after he had a tough outing this past Thursday against Milwaukee. The stat line was ugly, as he surrendered eight earned runs on ten hits and a pair of free passes, managing only two strikeouts across three frames of work.
Still, Soroka had a 2.60 ERA before the start against the Brewers last week, and like Skenes, he’s been affected by a couple of bad outings rather than being flat-out below average on a steady basis. The bottom line is that both Skenes and Soroka are capable pitchers, so we could be in line for a relatively low-scoring game here.