George Kirby Leads 3 MLB Predictions Targeting Pitching Mismatches
The Wednesday slate is divided almost perfectly in half and that means we have action going on all afternoon/evening. There are 8.5 hours separating the first first pitch from the last one, giving you no excuse to not explore the various markets. Our MLB predictions have you covered on an early and a late game: embrace the full day of ball.
MLB Predictions for Wednesday, April 29
Mariners at Twins: Mariners ML
We’ve got two starting pitchers with near identical ERAs, but two very different stories have been told and I’m always one to listen.
The home team sends Taj Bradley to the mound, he of the 4.25 xERA and unsustainable 86.6% strand rate (2025: 62.7%). The Mariners rank comfortably inside of the top-10 in both barrel rate and average launch angle, strengths that could very much result in a big inning when you consider that opponents are 10-of-27 when putting one of the first two pitches in play against Bradley this season.
Seattle’s George Kirby has a very different profile despite a similar starting point in terms of raw ERA. His xERA is actually better than his posted number and he’s allowed just five barrels this season. His ground ball rate is spiking and as more of a contact pitcher, that is his cleanest path to a big season.
A big season would be great, but I’ll settle for a big next 6+ innings. He’s not allowing opponents to set the table for their big bats (1-2 hitters have just three knocks in 36 at-bats against him this season) and we have plenty of evidence over the past two weeks of just how low the floor is on a night-to-night basis for Minnesota.
The M’s lost Kirby’s first two starts of April, but they’ve not only won the three sense, they’ve taken care of business early enough to get him in the left column. I’ve got them controlling this game sooner than later, bringing all sorts of positive Kirby props (outs recorded, win, etc.) into play for those looking for different ways to leverage this matchup.
Angels at White Sox: White Sox +1.5 and Over 8.5
Yusei Kikuchi is not reliable right now, as he’s 0-3 with a 6.21 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and 32:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) in 29 innings over six starts this season. He’s just 2-3 with a 4.79 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 34:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) in 35.2 innings over seven career starts against the White Sox.
The White Sox turn to Erick Fedde, who isn’t displaying swing-and-miss stuff and is basically surviving, Fedde carries a 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 16:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) in 26.1 innings over five appearances (three starts), and those numbers are better than how he’s pitched. I’ll take a chance on the White Sox and I like the Over.
Royals vs. Athletics: Over 8.5
On paper, this should be a promising matchup since Luis Severino and Michael Wacha have both had dominant stretches and are capable of silencing opposing lineups on their day. The problem is that “their day” hasn’t happened in quite some time. Out of the two pitchers, two, Wacha is the one who’s been pitching better of late.
Wacha enters this game carrying a 2.51 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP across 32.1 innings, but the A’s have a dangerous lineup that can wreak havoc on any pitcher who doesn’t have real swing-and-miss stuff – like Wacha. Wacha has had a K/9 below 8.0 in each of the last three seasons, so his days of throwing elite stuff are no longer a possibility.
On the other hand, Severino has had a disastrous season in 2026, posting a 5.17 ERA and 1.56 WHIP across 31.1 innings while striking out 32 and walking 21. Severino’s 4.94 FIP means he’s pitched as poorly as his ERA indicates, but the Royals, like the A’s, have enough power in their lineup to ruin a pitcher’s day on any given game. With two below-average pitchers and in a favorable hitting environment, I’m taking the over.