Joe Ryan At The Center of Sunday’s Top MLB Predictions

As is typical on Sundays, the slate is front loaded as we search for statistically sound MLB predictions. There is plenty of intrigue for the final day of the week with Spencer Strider set to debut, Chase Burns looking to keep the good times rolling, and plenty of other interesting spots that you can use our Fantasy Pitcher Projections to help you maxamize your fantasy/betting day on the diamond.

MLB Predictions for Sunday, May 3

Blue Jays at Twins: Joe Ryan over 16.5 outs

We are coming off of a day game in which the Minnesota bullpen was exposed after Connor Prielipp largely held his own against the reigning AL Champions and I’m willing to bet that staff ace Joe Ryan will be counted on for as much volume as he can offer today.

When all was said and done, the Twins’ ‘pen put 10+ pitches in five different pitchers yesterday, potentially leaving them a little thin for the series finale. No worries, Ryan has averaged 93.2 pitches over his past five starts and is pitching better than his results indicate (3.76 ERA, 3.10 xERA, and a 2.98 FIP).

We know the Jays are a low barrel rate offense and with Ryan’s stuff in form (pacing for the second highest chase rate of his career), the veteran righty is in a good position to hold all of the cards in this matchup.

The Twins’ offense has been up-and-down after the hot 8-1 stretch in early April, so I’d rather not rely on them. Do I think Minnesota wins? I do, but for me, a moneyline bet is counting on more pieces than I have to: Ryan gives us a top-of-the-rotation type of outing today and cashes this ticket with relative ease!

Blue Jays at Twins: Twins moneyline and Under 8

Joe Ryan comes into this game with three quality starts in his last four appearances. He’s carrying a 3.76 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 3.86 xFIP and 39:9 K:BB in 38.1 innings. He’s missing bats and displaying great control, and most of his innings have little to no traffic.

Trey Yesavage, on the other hand, threw 5.1 scoreless innings and surrendered four hits with three strikeouts and no walks in a 3-0 home win against the Red Sox in his season debut on Tuesday. He was limited to 74 pitches (50 strikes). The Blue Jays are easing him back and right now, Ryan is the better pitcher. I’d take a chance on the Twins and the Under.

Royals at Mariners: Under 1.5 runs through 3 innings

Both of these pitchers are giving up way too many barrels. Neither Luis Castillo or Kris Bubic should be thrilled with where the stand after the first month of the season, but facing one another in a pitchers park might just be what they need to turn things around.

The Mariners and Royals both extend the strike zone more than the average MLB team and that should allow the shaky starters to develop a rhythm that they’ve lacked to date. Bubic has been tough on the top half of lineups this season (11 hits allowed in 62 at-bats) and while Castillo is coming off of a disaster of a showing in Minnesota, he does have three starts in which he’s allowed two or fewer runs, something you might be unaware of given his winless record with a 6.35 ERA.