Logan Webb and Sandy Alcantara Highlighted at Home for Tuesday’s MLB Predictions

Home teams highlight our MLB predictions for today, a full slate with some aces toeing the rubber. Those elite pitchers are comfortable clicks in that they create something of a floor that rotation fillers don’t, but the market price reflects that and that’s why you don’t see any of the elite of the elite SPs making the betting card for this evening.

MLB Predictions for Tuesday, May 5

Padres at Giants: Giants Moneyline, Webb props

Logan Webb has more losses than wins this season and owns an ERA north of 4.00, but this profiles as a great spot and I think his season long numbers are actually getting us a bit of a discount.

The veteran righty held the Phillies to a single run over seven innings of work last week, potential that is very much in play tonight against a Padres offense that struggles in all the right spots for those of us backing Webb in a variety of prop markets tonight.

This season, San Diego is a bottom-5 launch angle offense and ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in terms of plate discipline. We know that Webb is a ground ball specialist, so his career-best pace in chase rate has him trending in a direction of full blown ace performance in this spot.

If the Padres are going to make noise, the top third of the lineup will have to set the table. Good luck with that: 1-2-3 hitters are batting just .136 against Webb this season, striking out 2.5 times more often than they record a knock.

Orioles at Marlins: Marlins moneyline

Chris Bassitt looked better on Thursday’s start against Houston, giving up one earned run on seven in 6.2 innings, but he still has a 5.46 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and 17:14 K:BB in 28 innings over six starts.

Sandy Alcantara, on the other hand, has back-to-back quality starts, and overall, has five in seven appearances this season. He brings a 3.04 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 31:15 K:BB over 47.1 innings, and while he’s lacked strikeout upside, he’s pitched deep into games and shown control, with just 2.85 BB/9.

His form has my interest and his rates came back strong when looking at our Fantasy Pitcher Projections in this specific matchup.

The gap between these starters is clear. Most innings don’t end quickly for Bassitt and mistakes tend to pile up. Alcantara is doing the opposite, keeping things under control start to start. I like the Marlins here.

Pirates at Diamondbacks: Over 8.5

Let’s start by saying that the pitching matchup should favor the idea of this game being a high-scoring contest. Eduardo Rodriguez will take the ball for the Diamondbacks, and while his overall season numbers are decent (2-0, 3.03 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), he’s been turning in the wrong direction lately. The 33-year-old veteran has allowed at least four earned runs in two of his last three starts while failing to pitch more than five innings in the last three. That’s not encouraging.

Then, there’s Bubba Chandler. A highly-touted prospect in the Pittsburgh organization, Chandler has posted a 4.97 ERA in 29 innings this season while also sporting a 1.48 WHIP and 27:20 K:BB. Chandler doesn’t strike out too many batters, has control issues and doesn’t really limit baserunners – although that’s an issue that also plagues Rodriguez. Plus, this game will be played in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors, Chase Field, further enhancing the idea that this game will be a high-scoring contest. Feel confident in taking the over here.