MLB Predictions: 3 Thursday Pitchers — Including Will Warren — Trigger Clear Betting Edges
There’s one afternoon game to wet your appetite for a packed late slate today. There are some shaky pitchers toeing the rubber today, but there are also some high pedigree SPs looks to right the ship. Our MLB predictions look to pick on two struggling arms and buying high, still not high enough, on one who is off to a great start in 2026.
MLB Predictions for Friday, May 1
Orioles at Yankees: Will Warren To Earn The Win
Betting on any pitcher to earn a victory in this day-and-age is terrifying given load management and specialists in the ‘pen, but Will Warren has seen his Yanks score 10+ runs in each of his past three starts and I like him to keep the good results coming.
- BABIP: .321
- oBAA, first two pitches: .429
- Multiple BB or a HR allowed in the majority of his starts
Those all sound like negatives, right?
They are. Those are holes that could cripple a pitching profile, but New York’s righty has overcome all of that to own a 2.59 ERA and .267 xFIP. The opposition has been helpless once Warren gets a second strike on them (9-of-69 in those spots this season, .130 batting average) and he’s allowed just two extra base knocks with runners on base through six starts.
The O’s have talent, but they also own the third highest CSW% (called-plus-swinging strike rate). They are being held to two or fewer runs nearly one-third of the time as a result and that’s simply not going to cut it against a Bronx Bombers offense that has earned that moniker through the first month of 2026 by pacing the league in exit velocity and barrel rate.
Warren increased his pitch count with each passing April start, giving us the last piece of the puzzle: volume. After a shaky first full season as a member of this rotation, the breadcrumbs are being laid for this being a true difference maker in fantasy circles and a cash cow in markets like this until his price catches up.
Rangers at Tigers: Over 8.5
Look for a high-scoring game. MacKenzie Gore has allowed 10 earned runs in 14.2 innings over his last three starts, and he’s not made it past the fifth inning in any of his last four starts. He brings a 4.35 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 42:15 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) in 31 innings.
The Tigers give the ball to Jack Flaherty, who’s also been inconsistent. Flaherty carries a 5.33 ERA despite allowing two, one, or no earned runs in four of his six starts this season. He also has a 1.74 WHIP and 22 walks in 25.1 innings.
The Over is the play here because neither guy is getting through innings clean, and that’s how games like this get away fast. Gore’s starts keep stalling in the middle innings, and Flaherty keeps putting extra runners on base. That’s why we will likely get one or more innings that turn into a mess.
Brewers at Nationals: Jacob Misiorowski over 6.5 strikeouts
Even though the Nationals have been one of the most prolific offenses in the majors during the first month of the season with 175 runs scored, which is the second-best mark in MLB entering Friday’s slate, they’re also far from perfect. One of their biggest issues is their tendency to strike out, as they’re tied for ninth in team strikeouts.
A prolific offense tends to strike out a lot in most cases, and the Nationals are tied with the Yankees and Twins with 279 strikeouts thus far. That poses an even bigger problem for Washington since they’ll face Jacob Misiorowski, who ranks second in the majors in strikeouts with 51 across six starts. He’s the only pitcher in the majors with over 50 punchouts and six or fewer starts, as the other hurlers who have crossed that 50-strikeout threshold, Cristopher Sanchez and Gavin Williams, have made seven starts each.
Considering that Misiorowski has struck out at least seven in all but one of his six starts, and with at least nine strikeouts in four of them, this looks like a solid line for the Brewers’ right-hander.